Episode 1 – Strange Facts to Keep in Mind Late in a Bull Market
January 17, 2020 (Recorded on December 19, 2019 — Denver, Colorado)
This first episode of The Butler Financial Podcast is a conversation between Mark and Mikyo that examines a prevalent narrative among investors today: after a long bull market capped off by a powerful run-up in 2019, how much higher can stocks really go? To many folks it feels like a recession is right around the corner. If so, what to do? On this very understandable line of questioning, we think this is the perfect moment to bring some history and analytics to bear. Indeed, a recession is one of several plausible short-term scenarios. However, those investors who feel it is highly probable (to the exclusion of other scenarios) may expose themselves to more risk than they realize by dramatically reducing their allocation to growth/risk assets. In this podcast, Mark and Mikyo discuss the biases that cause investors to underestimate the significance of late-cycle equity returns, and Mikyo quantifies the potential cost of this by digging into the market data of the last 70 years. We hope you enjoy!
Please note: we are not forecasting the direction or performance of equities or any other asset class. None of the views in this podcast should be interpreted as a “market call”, nor should they be used as the sole basis for making portfolio allocation or investment decisions.
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